March 2026

The energy market enters the spring of 2026 in a landscape without optimistic forecasts. The conflict in the Persian Gulf has driven fuel prices — and several other essential materials — sharply upward, and a quick return to pre‑war economic conditions is not expected.

Europe remains vulnerable to energy crises. At the same time, the political debate around the EU ETS and the recent decline in allowance prices show that the carbon market does not operate in a vacuum. Energy security is returning as a central political criterion. Protecting consumers from inflationary pressures has become a key political objective for governments.

The summer of 2026 will be a period of low demand and, at the same time, a stress test for European energy markets and for the credibility of climate policy under crisis conditions.